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Premier League Season Predictions

The season is upon us, with Arsenal and Brentford set to get us kicked off later today. I’ve forgotten what it is like to have a season that isn’t hugely impacted by Covid. There was the obvious break in the season two years ago, ending with Project Restart, and while we didn’t have a pause in the season last year, the lack of fans was certainly eerie. Finally, we will get to see packed stadiums serenading their players to give them the impetus to go forward. We will have proper away days back. There will be plenty of banter back in the stadiums, as opposed to spending that energy arguing on Twitter. There is no sport where the fans and the club are connected like Football, so it is long overdue to have fans back. Considering many teams earned more points away from home than at home last season, it is clear that the supporters make a big difference, which will make this season all the more entertaining. Even looking past the supporter influence, it should be an incredibly competitive season. The Premier League has the most expensive players, a great mix of legendary and ascending managers, and an intensity that just isn’t matched by other domestic leagues. I will attempt to predict where I think each team will finish in the table and give insight into how that decision was made, with the caveat that there are still 3 weeks left in the transfer window.

Watford return to the Premier League as a more defensively solid team than the one that was relegated two season ago, finishing with the best defense in the Championship. They return most of the same squad, which is a blessing and a curse, but that defensive solidity should give them a better fighting chance, as long as it translates to the Prem. Their manager is a relatively untested one, so it is tough to say whether or not that form can translate when speaking about tougher opposition.

Ismalia Sarr’s stock is pointing up, so it is baffling how he didn’t have any serious interest in his services his summer. He was lightly linked to a few teams, but no serious rumors ever circulated. He is in a good way, and if he can continue improving, Watford have a chance to stay up. Unfortunately, I don’t think his heroics on their own will do the trick.

Newcastle is a club full of history, but has failed to do the town and its supporters proud for a while now. They lack ambition in the transfer market, the team looks as if it lacks ambition on the pitch, leading you to feel bad for the supporters of a once great club.

They were somehow able to retain the services of Allan Saint-Maximin, which is a transfer win in and of itself. They were also able to pry the free scoring Joe Willock away from Arsenal to go along with the underrated Callum Wilson, giving them much needed impetus in the final third. Other than this attacking triumvirate, along with the creativity of Almiron, that’s about all that Newcastle have going for them. While Lascelles is an above average defender, he doesn’t have what it takes to hold this defense together.

With a cloud hanging over the club regarding inept owners that aren’t willing to improve the club, it will become tougher and tougher for supporters to back the club, ultimately removing any home field advantage. There also isn’t much depth to speak of, so they will be stuck in a relegation battle, and if they have any injury troubles, I can easily see one or more of the newly promoted three leapfrogging them.

I’m not sure where it all went so wrong for Southampton. They are a team that enjoyed an incredible start to the season, with a signature win over Liverpool and the sight of Ralph Hassenhutl doubled over in tears of joy being the main memory of the first quarter of the season. Then they had a huge drop off, culminating in ANOTHER 9–0 loss in consecutive seasons, leading them back towards the bottom of the table.

I believe that Moussa Djenepo is a huge talent; if he can stay healthy it will be a breakout season for him, and they will need whatever they can get in the wake of the loss of Danny Ings. It’s unfortunate that he was sold late in the window, and it is looking like there won’t be any time to replace him. James Ward-Prowse has the ability to put in the service, but as of right now it’s unclear who he will be pinging crosses to. Not only will they be a worse goal scoring team than last season, they return the second worst defense in the Premier League from last season, shipping 68 goals. They have done next to nothing to correct a problem that Hassenhutl has publicly identified.

Where there’s a Wilfred, there’s a way. Zaha can singlehandedly win you points when you are in a tough situation. Bringing in Marc Guehi from Chelsea should help shore up the 3rd worst defense in the Premier League last season.

However, they let Townsend, Sakho, and Patrick van Aanholt walk in the summer. Unless some of their academy players turn into gems, there really isnt much to be excited about with this team. Outside of Zaha, who can create magic for you? I don’t trust Benteke to lead the line for an entire season. James Macarthur and Luka Milivojevic are part of an aging midfield that needs an overhaul. Townsend may not have top level output, but he was a very resourceful player for them who they have failed to replace. I see Patrick Vieira being the first manager to be sacked, and Crystal Palace will definitely be in a relegation battle.

Back again like they never left. Norwich’s last foray into the Premier League can only be categorized as a failure. In an effort to not repeat that feat, they brought in Milot Rashica from Werder Bremen to bring some emphasis from the wing. His direct style of play should be a welcome sight to a team that plays attractive offensive football. They also brought in the American, Josh Sargent, but he is unproven at the top level.

They have to find a way to replace the creativity of Emi Buendia, who left the club to join Aston Villa. They don’t currently have an in-house like for like replacement, so they will have to get creative to replace the creativity. In lieu of that, they need their forwards to be clinical to take advantage of the lower amount of chances created. Maybe I’m reading too much into his Euros performances, but Teemu Puuki did not look like a confident player for Finland in front of goal. If Norwich wants to have a chance of staying up, they will need him fit and firing to the tune of 15+ Premier League goals, and I think he will bounce back and carry them there.

The xG darlings of the Premier League, Brighton was the king of creating chances and then fluffing their lines in front of goal. They had the second worst xG to goal differential, underperforming by 13.52 goals. If they could have tucked away just half of those goals, that would have been the difference between floating mid table and being near the relegation zone.

Tariq Lamptey is a breath of fresh air on the left side. If he can remain healthy, I think that he enters the conversation for top 5 fullbacks in the league.
So far they have been able to keep their lighthouse in the midfield, Yves Bissouma. He has the perfect blend of on the ball ability and defensive workrate that can paper over other cracks in a lineup. As long as they retain Bissouma, they have a great chance of avoiding the drop.

With their goal scoring woes last season, you figured it would make perfect sense for them to go out and grab a striker more capable than Welbeck. Unfortunately, the owners have not yet shown the ambition to go out and get Graham Potter a new striker. I’m surprised they haven’t made a move for an out of favor striker at another club, such as Anthony Martial or Divock Origi
Losing Ben White is a big blow to the defense. While they still have the underrated Lewis Dunk, they will need their defense to be rock solid if they are going to have a similar output in front of goal as last season.

Brentford comes in off a high from their sensational Championship playoff semi-final against Bournemouth that was the catalyst for getting them back into the Premier League for the first time in almost 80 years. Brentford play an entertaining, offensive brand of football, with Ivan Toney being the lynchpin. He led the Championship in goals last season, and I back him to score more goals than when Teemu Pukki entered the Prem as the Championship’s leading scorer.

Is their flexibility a gift or a curse? Thomas Frank flipped back and forth between using 3 CBs and a more traditional back four. You would think that having that adaptability in your back pocket would be a good thing, but I believe that having a more consistent formation and sticking to it would serve them better in their effort to stay up. Only time will tell what the best strategy is.

Wolves have fallen off their perch a bit, finishing 13th after two consecutive top half finishes. Wolves will be returning a fully fit Raul Jiminez to partner with Adama Traore, which is a lethal pairing. Pedro Neto also figures to get in on the fun as well. Bruno Lage has an attacking philosophy that should be able to bring out the best of those 3 players. They also return most of their defense, which was normally a strength for them. Under Nuno, they were a tough team to break down, using 5 at the back often.

With the architect of their success over the last 3 seasons gone, how will they adapt to a new playing style? Nuno had a great pipeline of young Portuguese talent flowing through Wolves; they may struggle to be able to attract talent without him. Will switching to 4 at the back help this team find consistency, or will deviating away from what worked for them two seasons ago be a colossal error?

Ruben Neves is an important piece at the heart of midfield, so if he leaves this late in the window, it will leave a gigantic hole that can’t be filled until January at the earliest.

We know what we are going to get with a Sean Dyche Burnley team. If you come to Turf Moor, it will be a dogfight. They will remain defensively solid, and will make you work to break them down. The problem is that Burnley rarely have a counter-punch. They did show signs of developing in that direction back in 2017 when they finished 7th, but they did not build on that season from a goal scoring perspective, and defensively they have regressed.

They have done basically nothing in the transfer market to move the needle. While other teams in and around the league position that they want to be in have strengthened, Burnley have stood pat and backed Dyche to lead them to the promised land of the top half of the table. While it is great that the owners are investing in the infrastructure of the club, it won’t do as much good if they get relegated.

Burnley are a very, very resilient team. They know how to raise their level to meet the challenge, and while I believe they will be near the relegation zone, I back the experience of Burnley over the other bottom tier teams.

Moyes Magic led to a great revival in London, helping West Ham jump from a dismal 16th place finish up to 6th place. The loan arrival of Jesse Lingard helped fuel West Ham into a seemingly unstoppable force that seemed destined for the top four with the help of Lingard being in the best form of his life. Even without Lingard this season, West Ham is still in good position to be in the top half of the table, and challenge for European qualification. However, I think they will fall short of the mark, with teams like Leeds and Aston Villa improving around them.

Declan Rice figures to be the main man in midfield once again, and his confidence should be through the roof after proving Gareth Southgate’s belief in his abilities correct, helping spring England to a European Championship runner-up spot. Alongside him is Tomas Soucek, a Czech goalscoring revelation that took the Premier league by storm, scoring the 3rd most goals from midfield behind Fernandes and Gundogan (even more impressive when you consider that Bruno takes penalties and Soucek does not)

European qualification can be a blessing and a curse. Does West Ham have the strength in depth to compete on multiple fronts? Speaking of a lack of depth, I don’t believe that Michail Antonio is good enough to lead the line for the Hammers for the entire season. On his day, he can the game by the scruff and drag his team across the finish line, but those days are few and far between. Getting either a replacement for Lingard or a replacement striker would have done them a world of good, though a healthy Lanzini, as well as Jarrod Bowen, may help ease that strain.

They didn’t register a single win against the top four, making them true flat track bullies. Can they rack up a similar tally of wins against inferior opposition, or will that regress to the mean?

As much as I personally love Rafa, going from Ancelotti to Benitez is a colossal downgrade for the club. While Benitez may be able to grind out results on the field, off the field he will have a hard time gaining the trust of the supporters, and he doesn’t have the same gravitational pull in the transfer market that Carlo had. He also has the curse of his owners closing the chequebook on him wherever he goes. When he left Newcastle, they promptly brought in Joelinton, Saint Maximin, and others for Steve Bruce. It doesn’t seem that Moshiri has any plans to strengthen the squad out of small moves for Demarai Gray and Andros Townsend; both of which don’t address their average midfield.

Rafa does have some tools at the club to work with though. Between Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, they have a formidable attack that should be able to comfortably topple the bottom half of the table on their day, with Lucas Digne providing the creativity from the left flank. Pickford has had his questionable moments between the sticks over the years, but he should be buoyed by a great Euros run, and I suspect that he will have his best season in years.

There’s two scenarios I see for James Rodriguez, either he isn’t with Everton because he’s sold, or he isn’t with Everton mentally because he doesn’t want to be there. That leaves a creativity void in central midfield, and it isn’t like there is a strong base of talent in midfield to fall back on in the first place
They were the only team in the top 11 with a negative goal differential. That’s….. Not good. I’ll bet on their goal scoring form to improve with continual evolution from Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin, and their defense should naturally improve on the training ground with Rafa, but I still don’t have a lot of faith in this group.

I’m personally very high on Leeds; when Bielsa-ball is in full flow, there aren’t many teams in the Premier league that can beat them. They finished last season with 18 wins and 15 losses, so clearly they run very hot and cold. If they can turn some of those games where they suffer an early deficit into draws, that could be the difference between 9th place and 6th. They are returning most of the team that finished with 59 points last season, with Kalvin Phillips looking to improve upon his Euros performances. They brought back Jack Harrison permanently from City, as well as Junior Firpo from Barcelona.

No team in the Premier League was better at playing with a lead than Leeds United. In games where they took the lead first, they had a 90% win rate. On the flip side, they conceded the most amount of goals in the top half of the table last season. When their pressing is on, they can beautifully turn defense into attack, which is why they scored more goals than teams like Chelsea and Arsenal. However, when the press fails, it feels like they don’t have a plan B, hence why they leaked 15 more goals than the aforementioned London clubs.

Some will point to Sheffield United’s situation as a cautionary tale. The two clubs share more in common than the name United; Sheffield also was promoted into the Premier League with a brand of fearless offensive football, and finished 9th their first season back. Unfortunately, Sheffield was relegated the very next season, a fate that Leeds will look to avoid. Unless Bielsa leaves for some reason, I don’t see this happening to Leeds; I actually believe they have a great chance to improve their position on the table if they put it all together.

Oh, Spurs. I have no idea what to make of you. You are a team filled with promise across the pitch, generally start off hot, then tail off at the end of the season. You redeemed yourselves by qualifying for Europe……via the UEFA Conference League. No serious club has ambitions of being in the Conference League, so that is nothing to celebrate. This team has the highest level of variance due to the uncertainty surrounding Harry Kane, they could finish as high as fourth and as low as 10th, it’s really hard to tell with this group. They will be tested early, with games against Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester City looming large. That will be a barometer for how good this team can be.

Son is still an elite forward. He is comfortably a top ten attacking player and capable of carrying an attack on his own, but there are a bevy of attacking players there to support him. Bryan Gil seems to be a smart signing, and they still have Bergwijn and Lucas Moura at their disposal, creating a fluid attacking line. Of course, if Harry Kane comes around, this becomes an elite strike force. Even if he doesn’t leave, how will his attempt at holding out (no matter how he spins it) affect his morale? Will we get the best version of Kane, or will we get a disinterested version that is a shell of his former self? We will have to wait and see. Either way, I’m not sold on their back line. They brought in Christian Romero to help in that department, but he will need to adjust to the Premier League, so I’m not positive that he is an immediate upgrade on the departed Toby Alderweireld.

Is Nuno ready for the step up in expectation? At Wolves, he was managing a team where they were just happy to finish in the top half of the table, so they were constantly overachieving. At Spurs, they are desperate to re-enter the European elite, and anything less than a top four finish will be seen as a failure.

The elephant in the room is that Jack Grealish, their boyhood fan turned captain, has left for greener pastures; with the green coming in the form of a huge pay rise. While that has left a void in the hearts of Villa fans, I’m not so sure that it has left a void in the team. In fact, I could argue that Villa could be even better this season. I see nothing from stopping Villa from climbing into the top 8.

Christian Purslow went on video and laid out their plans to replace Jack Grealish, so he made every writer’s job that much easier. He believes that, instead of trying to replicate what Jack brought to the team in one player, he wants to spread that burden to multiple players. Villa brought in Danny Ings, a proven top level Premier League striker when healthy, Emi Buendia, the leading assist maker in the Championship, and Leon Bailey, a great younger winger who was 3rd in the Bundesliga in completed dribbles. They have an above average defense, with Mings and Konza an effective duo as long as Mings can keep his head.

Their 15 games lost in the premier league last season is cause for concern; if they plan to rise into the top ten and potentially into European qualification spots, then they need to turn some of those losses into draws at the least. They were also one of the worst teams in the league at playing with a deficit, so they need to find more resolve in those games so that they can grind out more points.

I’m more bullish on Arsenal than most; I think they will be in and around the top 4 the entire season, especially without European obligations. If they can find a way to end the transfer window with a more proven 10 than Emile Smith-Rowe, that may tempt me to push them into the top four. Only Manchester City took more points and conceded less goals than Arsenal in the final 24 games, and I’m banking on them to find a similar level of consistency this season.

The Gunners seem to be in the midst of a youth movement. Lokonga, Martinelli, ESR, Tierney, White, and Saka are all 24 or younger and look to play a major role this season, if Arteta and Edu get it right banking on this young talent, the spine of the team minus goalkeeper is set for years to come. That may not be what Arsenal fans want to hear in the present, but they are well positioned to return to former glory if they build on this foundation.

That is definitely a lot of pressure to put on these younger players; is ESR ready to be the difference maker if Arsenal don’t bring in Ødegaard or Maddison? Is Martinelli ready to step up to fill the void in the goalscoring department, with Aubameyang looking disinterested and Lacazette running hot and cold? If the answer to one or both of these questions is yes, then I feel more confident about Arteta finishing the season with his job. For now, I’m backing him to get the job done.

Leicester City can compete with anyone on their day. That has been proven on many occasions; whether it be their improbable title win, or if you are looking for a more recent example, their win over Manchester City in the Community Shield. The main hindrance to Leicester once again disrupting the status quo for European places is their defense. Originally, with the much improved Fofana and the ever-present Soyuncu, they looked to be poised to have a great spine with Ndidi in front of them. However, after Fofana’s injury, that immediately becomes a position of concern.

Bringing in Patson Daka was a great piece of business. He will get Premier League experience now, while being touted to be the successor to Jamie Vardy. Ihenacho needs to continue to show that he has found his level, as opposed to this being a purple patch. If Harvey Barnes comes back healthy, then this is a very scary frontline.

Keeping James Maddison and Youri Tielemans was a great victory for Leicester. At certain points this offseason, it seemed a certainty that one, if not both were destined for a new challenge elsewhere. Now, unless Arsenal meet Leicester’s valuation which is looking increasingly unlikely, both will have a big part to play in keeping Leicester in Europe. They certainly have the depth to handle the additional games.

On the surface, all appears well on the red side of Manchester. They are coming off an impressive second place finish, and they have added the electric Jadon Sancho and one of Real Madrid’s defensive lynchpins during their Champions League dominance over the last decade, Rafael Varane, who brings pedigree and stability to a defense that sorely needed it alongside Harry Maguire. Not entirely sure what all those protests against the Glazers were for, because time and time again United have shown a willingness to spend to bring in top tier talent. The question is do they have enough?

If you dig a little deeper, I still think that there are a few issues with this United squad. They need a little more depth at striker; Cavani is class on his day but is aging and may not hold up the entire season, Martial is past his time at the club, and Rashford can play as a 9 but Ole opts to use him on the wing. They are also fairly light in midfield; Fred and Mctominay as your defensive lynchpins is the least intimidating out of the top 4. If they could get a true midfield destroyer capable of breaking up counter attacks and great tackling, then I would be tipping them to get that ever-elusive 21st title. Ironically, they have that profile of player in Wan-Bissaka, but he is not what is needed at the modern fullback position, as evidenced by their interest in Trippier.

We have another chapter in the book of “unlocking Paul Pogba”. If they can get even 80% of the Pogba that turns up for France, then this attack would be a frightening prospect with him and Bruno Fernandes threatening from all areas of the final third. The re-emergence of Luke Shaw has been great to see, with his confidence restored now that he doesn’t have the condescending Mourinho sapping his energy away from him. If Luke Shaw can keep this level of form, he will rightfully enter the conversation of one of the best fullbacks in the league. However, we need to see consistency before putting him at that level.

Fresh off a Champions League triumph, Chelsea have to like their chances to mount a title challenge. Their spending spree last summer (and frankly, every summer) has provided Tuchel with depth and flexibility. They have an embarrassment of riches on the wing, boasting the likes of Pulisic, Hudson-Odoi, and Ziyech to call upon. The fact that they were able to win the Champions League with what most would describe as a below average season from Timo Werner is a feat in and of itself, so I expect Timo to regress to the mean. Even if he doesn’t, they have their new shiny toy in Romelu Lukaku to lead the line and provide the goods. Lukaku has become world class ever since he left United for Inter, and he returns to the Premier League a much better player than the one that left, and now he has something to prove. Having a player that can score more than 7 league goals (no player on Chelsea scored more than 7) will be a huge lift to a side that really doesn’t need a huge lift given their quality all over the pitch. They are a frightening prospect.

Chelsea’s defense can still be suspect at times. Azpilicueta and Thiago Silva aren’t getting any younger, Rudiger is prone to an error or two, and they could use an infusion of youth. They are rumored to be on the hunt for another young CB to add to the group, which could go a long way in determining how the season will look for them. If Reece James can continue on his current trajectory, then Chelsea will have a claim to having the best fullbacks in the league. And of course, you can’t forget about N’golo Kante; all he does is win trophies. As long as he is in the fold, you can expect whatever team he’s on to be competing for the highest honors.

Manchester City will no doubt be in the title mix, even if their eyes are on that elusive first European triumph. They certainly have the squad to do it, with their strength in depth only rivaled by Chelsea. De Bruyne is a world class playmaker that also has a deadly long shot on him, the type of footballer that no club wants to come up against. Sterling endured a down season, but him and Mahrez create a potent duo out on the wings. Reigning player of the year Ruben Dias is out to prove that he is no one season wonder, and that he can replicate the level he produced last season. They even have their own English wonderkid in Phil Foden who has all the looks of a Guardiola player. I’ve gushed over 5 of their players, yet I haven’t even scratched the surface of all the talent at City’s disposal, and this is without me mentioning their newest signing, Jack Grealish!

Grealish’s ability to operate in the half spaces will make him quickly revered on the pitch. He fits what Guardiola loves in his wingers to a tee; he is light on his feet, intelligent, quick, and can beat his man in a 1v1 situation with ease
While Grealish is obviously an impressive addition to the squad, I’m not so sure that he necessarily moves the needle THAT much. Yes, he is an incredible player, but a lot of what he offers is the same thing that Bernardo Silva offers, with the main difference being that he is right footed. It is an expensive extra infusion of talent, but one that does not necessarily take them into that category of invincible.

I believe that Dias will come back down to earth some, and that is why I have them shockingly finishing second. The only thing that may change my mind is if they are able to bring in Harry Kane, because as of right now they have not replaced Sergio Aguero and his goalscoring exploits. While City have a squad capable of scoring from anywhere on the field, not having that reliable 9 may come back to haunt them in the thick of the season.

Surprise, surprise. The Liverpool fan is picking his team to win the Premier League, so clearly this article isn’t biased, right? However, there are many reasons to think that Liverpool will be right back in the race with the rest of the top four, even though many outside the club have written them off due to their lack of ambition in the transfer market. Remember, this is a team that is just a couple years removed from a 97 point runners up domestic season with a Champions League trophy to culminate the year, and then they ran through the league with a 99 point season, 18 points ahead of second place. That margin might have been bigger if not for Covid interrupting the season and ruining their flow. While the front three were not in great form last season, a healthy season from Jota should help push Salah, Mane, and especially Firmino to be their best in front of goal; I can’t see the group of them faltering for two straight years. And with service from the best fullback pairing in Europe, TAA and Robertson, Liverpool are poised to be free flowing and back in action.

The main concern that will be brought up is how do they replace the consistency and production that Gini Wijnaldum gave them? Gini was the most used player of the Klopp era, so clearly he was an important cog. However, while fans may clamor for that Gini replacement, I’d argue that Liverpool picked up his replacement last season in the form of Thiago. We never saw the best version of Thiago last season, with Covid and a nasty tackle from Richarlison making his inaugural season in England a tough one, but there were enough signs to show the class that he brings to the squad. Klopp is also betting on youth, with a mix of Curtis Jones and Harvey Elliott bursting into the first team, to eat up some of those minutes that were vacated by Gini.

The other concern would be the health of Liverpool’s centrebacks, which was the obvious reason for their down season last year (a down season that still saw them finish 3rd thanks in part to a catastrophic collapse in form from Leicester). They have used the transfer market to shore that up, bringing in Konate, part of Leipzig’s former young exciting CB duo. Virgil Van Dijk and Gomez both look poised to be healthy for the start of the season, so what was a weakness for Liverpool last year becomes a strength. Virgil, Gomez, Konate, and Matip is better than any 4 CBs in the league, and a huge upgrade on last season’s heroics from Nat Phillips and Rhys Williams.

The final piece to the puzzle, and the one that I believe is the most important, is the return of Fabinho to midfield. While he can deputise as a CB in an emergency situation, he is at his best at the base of midfield. Having healthy CBs has a knock on effect of sending Fabinho back to his place as a world class 6, allowing Thiago to be more free and forward thinking as a midfielder knowing he has the stability of Fabinho next to him. Liverpool did not lose a single game with Fabinho in midfield, and that is a scary prospect for the rest of the league.

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